Preliminary data from consultants suggest that inflation may have slowed in August, generating expectations within the Government. President Javier Milei has projected that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) could begin with zero before the end of the year.
According to estimates, inflation in August could be around 1.4%, although the question of whether a CPI starting with zero will be registered remains. Ricardo Delgado, president of the consultancy Analytica, has stated that inflation will be between 1% and 2% until the end of the year, with projections of approximately 1% in September. “September will probably look similar to August, although we still have no measurements,” he said.
Delgado also highlighted that the moderation in food prices could help contain inflation, although private services continue to grow at a rate above the average. “We are basically seeing inertia in services, especially private services that are growing above 2%,” he noted.
On his part, Sebastián Menescaldi, director of EcoGo Consultores, deemed it unlikely that inflation could drop below 1% quickly. He explained that the moderation observed in August is due to the reversal of seasonal increases that had caused the surge in July. “We do have a strong deceleration, but a large part of that deceleration are the seasonal prices coming down,” stated Menescaldi.
Camilo Tiscornia, director of C&T Economic Advisors, agreed that it is difficult for inflation to drop below 1% for the remainder of the year. “I find it difficult at this point for inflation to start with zero in what remains of the year,” Tiscornia assured. He also predicted that the CPI would remain close to private projections for August, which estimate inflation between 1.4% and 1.9% after the 2.1% recorded in July.
These projections were made in a context where the Government seeks to demonstrate a deceleration in inflation after the increase in CPI in July. However, new challenges in the international arena, such as the rise in oil prices, could impact internal prices.
Source: www.infobae.com
