Consultants’ perception of the Argentine economy and the government’s image has shown signs of optimism, although the international context is becoming complicated. Today marks a holiday in the United States, allowing for a pause in the markets following rising international tensions and expectations for a possible increase in interest rates.
The Federal Reserve meeting on September 15 and 16 is a crucial point, with 65% of economists anticipating a rate increase linked to August inflation. President Donald Trump warned that he might interrupt trade with countries with a trade deficit if the Federal Reserve decides to raise rates. Such a measure would complicate international trade, although its implementation would be complex and not immediate. This, along with the decline of U.S. Treasury Bonds affecting global markets, raises concerns about Argentina’s access to international capital markets.
Despite these global challenges, local consultants are reporting signs of improvement in the Argentine economy. According to FMyA led by Fernando Marull, the government has taken the initiative again, announcing increases in mortgage credit and adjustments to the minimum wage. A more stable financial environment is highlighted, with the dollar stabilizing and strong performance in soybean export prices. Additionally, August inflation may have been around 1.8%, suggesting a future deceleration.
Meanwhile, EconViews under the direction of Miguel Kiguel reports that the week has been favorable for financial indicators, with country risk retreating to 490 points. However, the lack of a rebound in consumption and economic activity poses a challenge for the government’s image and its re-election. Despite these difficulties, statements from Scott Bessent, U.S. Treasury Secretary, offer a glimpse of potential support for Argentina in the face of future financial instabilities.
On the horizon, the possibility of a rate increase by the Federal Reserve generates uncertainty, but expectations for a balance in the trade balance remain, highlighting projections for significant exports. Recovery of access to international financial markets remains a key priority as elections approach, highlighting the need for a clear plan for the country’s economic future.
Source: www.infobae.com
